The much-awaited Bihar Assembly Election 2025 exit polls have painted a clear picture of the political mood in the state — the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to retain power with a comfortable majority.
Most surveys indicate the NDA crossing the majority mark of 122 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) appears to be trailing. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), a new entrant, is projected to make a limited impact.
According to aggregated exit poll trends:
- NDA: 130–160+ seats (some agencies project up to 180–200)
- Mahagathbandhan (MGB): 70–100 seats
- Jan Suraaj Party (JSP): 0–5 seats
- Others: 5–10 seats
The data strongly suggest a return of the NDA government with Nitish Kumar and BJP allies maintaining their voter base across regions.
Phase 1 Highlights – November 6
- Total Seats: 121 out of 243
- Districts Covered: 18
- Voter Turnout: Approximately 65%, marking one of Bihar’s highest participation rates in recent elections.
The first phase covered regions from central and southern Bihar. The high turnout signaled strong engagement, particularly among rural and first-time voters. Political analysts noted that the NDA performed strongly in its traditional bastions, while the MGB’s base showed signs of weakening in urban clusters.
Phase 2 Highlights – November 11
- Total Seats: 122
- Districts Covered: 20
- Voter Turnout: Around 68%, surpassing the first phase turnout.
The second phase witnessed higher participation across northern and border regions, including Seemanchal and Mithilanchal. These areas were expected to witness triangular contests involving the NDA, MGB, and Jan Suraaj. The strong voter response suggested enthusiasm across all age groups and communities.
Trending Exit Poll Data – What the Numbers Say
The trending exit poll data shows a consistent pattern across various agencies — the NDA is poised to secure a clear and decisive majority.
Here’s a summary of the seat projections being widely discussed:
| Alliance | Seat Projection Range |
| NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies) | 130 – 160+ |
| Mahagathbandhan (RJD + Congress + Left) | 70 – 100 |
| Jan Suraaj Party (Prashant Kishor) | 0 – 5 |
| Others / Independents | 5 – 10 |
Some optimistic polls suggest the NDA could even cross the 180-seat mark, while a few conservative estimates keep them around 130–140 seats, still comfortably past the majority threshold.
Overall, the trend is uniform — the NDA appears on track to form the next government in Bihar, with Nitish Kumar’s leadership and the BJP’s organisational strength proving decisive.
Why the NDA Seems Ahead
- Stable Alliance: The renewed coordination between the BJP and JD(U) has helped consolidate the NDA vote bank across caste and community lines.
- Welfare Schemes: Consistent delivery on housing, healthcare, and women’s empowerment initiatives resonated strongly with rural voters.
- Voter Confidence: The perception of political stability and governance continuity has given the NDA a clear edge.
- Fragmented Opposition: The Mahagathbandhan’s internal challenges and a lack of unified messaging appear to have diluted its impact.
Understanding the Exit Poll Trends
Exit polls represent post-voting estimates, not official results. They indicate voter preferences based on sampling and field interviews conducted after polling. While such data often aligns with final outcomes, deviations can occur due to sampling bias or late voter swings.
Still, when most exit polls converge in one direction — as they have this time — it usually reflects a decisive voter sentiment.
Who Will Win the Bihar Election 2025?
The final verdict will be declared on November 14, 2025, when counting takes place across all districts.
While exit polls favor the NDA, the real test will be whether the alliance sustains its predicted margins and whether the opposition manages surprise wins in key constituencies.
If trends hold, the NDA is likely to form the next government in Bihar, continuing its political dominance in the state.
What to Watch on Counting Day
- Alliance Strength: Will the NDA cross 160 seats or settle near 130?
- Opposition Performance: Can the Mahagathbandhan narrow the gap in its strongholds?
- Emerging Players: Will the Jan Suraaj Party open its account in the Assembly?
- Regional Trends: The Seemanchal and Mithilanchal belts could decide the margin of victory.
Key Takeaway
The Bihar Exit Poll 2025 clearly shows a strong tilt toward the NDA.
High voter turnout, positive sentiment around governance, and a divided opposition all appear to have worked in favor of the ruling alliance.
However, the final count on November 14 will reveal whether these projections translate into an outright mandate.
