From Bengal’s battle for Bengal to the south’s Dravidian clash — what the numbers say across five poll-bound states and territories
Counting on May 4
As the second phase of West Bengal polling wrapped up this evening, the Election Commission’s silence period lifted at 6:30 pm — and media organisations unleashed a torrent of exit poll projections for all five poll-bound regions: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry. The official count is May 4, but here is what the surveys suggest.
West Bengal
294 seats · Majority: 148
Phase 1 turnout 91.78%
Phase 2 turnout 89.99%
BJP 146–161 seats (Matrize)
TMC 125–140 seats (Matrize)
BJP 144–160 seats
TMC 129–145 seats
The most watched contest of the season has Bengal on tenterhooks. Multiple exit polls converge on a striking picture: the BJP could breach the majority mark of 148, potentially ending Mamata Banerjee’s fifteen-year hold on the state. The Matrize survey puts the BJP between 146 and 161 seats, with the TMC trailing at 125–140. Zee News’s AI anchor Zeenia offers a broadly similar forecast of 144–160 seats for the saffron camp.
In the hotly contested Barddhaman–Birbhum region alone, projections show the BJP and TMC neck-and-neck with 26–32 seats apiece, according to Matrize. The vote share forecast from Matrize gives the BJP-led alliance 45.5%, the Congress-led alliance 39.8%, and others 14.7%.
TMC, however, remains defiant. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, contesting from Bhabanipur, declared her party will form the government with a two-thirds majority. TMC MP Madan Mitra projected 200-plus seats for the party — a number at wide variance with most poll predictions.
Tamil Nadu
234 seats · Single phase, April 24
Voter turnout 84%+
DMK+ alliance 140–162 seats
AIADMK+ alliance 52–74 seats
Others incl. TVK 13–33 seats
The ruling DMK under Chief Minister M K Stalin appears well-placed for a consecutive term, according to exit poll projections. The DMK-led alliance is forecast to win anywhere between 140 and 162 seats — comfortably above the 118-seat majority mark. The AIADMK+ is projected to pick up 52–74 seats.
The wild card is actor-turned-politician Vijay Thalapathy’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which fielded candidates across all 234 constituencies and turned several traditional two-way Dravidian duels into triangular contests. Exit polls suggest TVK and other parties may collectively bag 13–33 seats — enough to dent the AIADMK rather than topple the DMK, based on early projections.
Kerala
140 seats · Single phase,
UDF (Congress-led) Leading major gains projected
LDF (Left-led) Trailing seat losses projected
NDA Marginal ~16% vote share
Kerala’s exit polls point to a significant swing towards the United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress. The Manorama News–C Voter survey, which covered nearly 29,000 voters, projects heavy UDF gains in the northern districts — particularly Kozhikode, where UDF is forecast to win 9–11 of 13 seats, and Malappuram, where it could sweep 14–16 seats. The LDF is projected to be reduced to 0–1 seats in Malappuram, a dramatic fall.
The LDF is expected to hold its ground in Thrissur (9–11 seats) and Palakkad (7–9 seats), but the outlook turns grim in Ernakulam, where the survey projects UDF winning 12–14 seats versus just 0–2 for the Left. The NDA’s vote share appears stuck around 16% statewide, with no significant seat conversion expected.
Assam
126 seats · Single phase
BJP 85–95 seats (Matrize)
Congress + allies 25–32 seats (Matrize)
The BJP is projected to retain power in Assam with a comfortable margin, according to Matrize exit poll projections. With 85–95 seats predicted, the party would well clear the 64-seat majority mark. The Congress and its allies are forecast to win just 25–32 seats — a distant second in what could be another decisive verdict for the incumbent.
Union Minister Piyush Goyal expressed confidence that the BJP-led alliance would hold Assam, while also predicting wins in both West Bengal and Tamil Nadu for the party’s broader coalition — an ambitious reading that most survey data only partially supports.
Puducherry
30 seats · Single phase, April 9
Voter turnout 89.20%
Puducherry recorded the highest voter turnout among all poll-bound regions at 89.20%, signalling strong voter engagement in the union territory. The contest involves a four-way tussle between the Congress-led UPA, AINRC, DMK, and BJP alliances in this small but politically vibrant region.
Union Minister Piyush Goyal predicted that the BJP-led alliance would retain power in Puducherry, though detailed seat-wise projections for the UT remained sparse compared to the larger states.
Counting day
All exit poll predictions will be tested when votes are officially tallied across all five regions.
Sunday, May 4, 2026
Exit polls are indicative projections and have historically been wrong. Readers are advised to treat these numbers as estimates, not verdicts.
Here’s your full news blog on the 2026 Assembly Election Exit Polls, covering all five poll-bound regions. Here’s a quick summary of the big picture:
West Bengal is the headline story — Matrize projects BJP winning 146–161 seats, which would cross the 148-seat majority mark and potentially end the TMC’s fifteen-year reign. Zeenia AI offers a similar forecast of 144–160 for BJP and 129–145 for TMC.
Tamil Nadu looks set to return the DMK — the DMK+ alliance is forecast at 140–162 seats, while AIADMK+ may get 52–74 and actor Vijay Thalapathy’s TVK and others could bag 13–33 seats.
Kerala is seeing a projected UDF surge — the Manorama News–C Voter exit poll, covering 28,848 voters, predicts major UDF gains in districts like Kozhikode (9–11 seats) and a near-sweep in Malappuram (14–16 seats), while the LDF holds Thrissur and Palakkad.
Assam is projected to remain BJP territory — Matrize forecasts 85–95 seats for BJP and just 25–32 for Congress and allies.
Puducherry saw the highest turnout of 89.20% among all regions, though detailed projections are still emerging.
Official counting is scheduled for May 4, 2026. All predictions should be taken as estimates — exit polls have historically been off the mark.
